Economists Lower Expectations For Robust Growth In 2019

Feb. 4, 2019
NABE panel trims expectations for investment, hiring and GDP in 2019.

A recession may not be in store for 2019 but neither is a booming economy, according to the results of the January 2019 NABE (National Association of Business Economics) Business Conditions Survey.

“Most respondents do not expect a recession within the next 12 months, but fewer respondents than previously expect robust economic growth in the year ahead,” says NABE Business Conditions Survey Chair Sam Kyei, CBE, chief economist, SAK Economics LLC. “Respondents are nearly unanimous that growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product—real GDP—would remain positive through the end of 2019. Two-thirds of respondents expect growth to exceed 2%; however, that share is smaller than the 90% of respondents in the previous survey—which covered the outlook from the third quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019.”

Fewer survey respondents report rising sales at their firms in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter and profit margin increases became significantly less widespread in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to Kyei.

“Materials input costs are rising at respondents’ firms, especially goods-producing firms. Fifty-three percent of survey respondents report shortages of skilled labor at their firms and the current tight labor market conditions continue to push firms to raise wages, increase training, and consider additional automation,” says Kyei. “However, prices charged by respondents’ firms appear to be anchored at the previous quarter’s levels. Two-thirds of respondents indicate their firms’ prices were unchanged during the fourth quarter of 2018.”

For more information, visit:

Sponsored Recommendations

Keys to Improving Safety in Chemical Processes (PDF)

Many facilities handle dangerous processes and products on a daily basis. Keeping everything under control demands well-trained people working with the best equipment.

Get Hands-On Training in Emerson's Interactive Plant Environment

Enhance the training experience and increase retention by training hands-on in Emerson's Interactive Plant Environment. Build skills here so you have them where and when it matters...

Managing and Reducing Methane Emission in Upstream Oil & Gas

Measurement Instrumentation for reducing emissions, improving efficiency and ensuring safety.

Micro Motion 4700 Coriolis Configurable Inputs and Outputs Transmitter

The Micro Motion 4700 Coriolis Transmitter offers a compact C1D1 (Zone 1) housing. Bluetooth and Smart Meter Verification are available.