ExxonMobil to Shoulder Permian Oil Production Growth in 2026

As they reported their year-end 2025 results, Permian Basin exploration and production companies detailed expectations for modest growth in 2026.

East Daley Analytics' survey of guidance from 14 public operators pointed to growth of 183,000 barrels per day, or 2.7%, in oil production in 2026.

The clear outlier is ExxonMobil, which projected growth of 113,000 barrels per day this year.

"It boils down to the depth of our inventory, high return inventory," said Rich Dealy, ExxonMobil's vice president for the Permian Basin.

With 1.5 million acres, he told the Reporter-Telegram, the company has room for longer laterals, cube development to mitigate parent-child well interference and testing of new technologies.

The company has not changed its Permian Basin growth plans since last year's completion of its merger with Pioneer Natural Resources, he said. The company's goal remains to reach 2 million barrels a day from the Permian by the end of 2030.

"We couldn't do this without our people. They are the key metrics that let us deliver that growth goal," he said.

Dealy called the Permian Basin "the gift that keeps on giving" as his company joined others in developing new benches beyond the core Wolfcamp and Spraberry. ExxonMobil continues to add drilling opportunities through trades and bolt-on acquisitions, he added.

He sees public companies remaining cautious about increasing activity levels in the short term amid the current spike in oil prices because of capital discipline and price volatility. He said drilling companies report some inquiries but the rig count has not yet changed significantly. He added that it could take nine to 12 months before new production from additional drilling reaches pipelines and refiners.

"Look at what's happening in the world. We want U.S. energy independence and security of supply and affordability," Dealy said. "Despite projections, there will always be demand for oil. Our portfolio allows us to grow and we hope we can relieve some of the supply pressure that's building."

Excluding Exxon, Permian guidance would fall to 1.2% growth this year, East Daley analysts said. Beyond Exxon, most producers forecast far more modest gains.

The only other producer calling for relatively robust growth in 2026 is Permian Resources at 6%. Occidental, the second-largest Permian oil producer after ExxonMobil, has guided to 3.6% growth.

Only Devon Energy is predicting a 0.6% dip in its oil production in 2026.

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