The October 2019 NABE Outlook from the National Association for Business Economics offers a mixed forecast. Survey panelists say they believe the U.S. economy will continue to expand into 2020, but they anticipate GDP growth will fall below 2% next year for the first time since 2016.
“The consensus forecast calls for real GDP growth to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.3% in 2019, and then to 1.8% in 2020,” says NABE President Constance Hunter, CBE, chief economist, KPMG.
“The panel turned decidedly more pessimistic about the outlook over the summer, with 80% of participants viewing risks to the outlook as tilted to the downside,” adds Survey Chair Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist, Oxford Economics. “The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to U.S. economic activity.”
Over 40% of NABE respondents expect at least one more rate cut in 2019 by the Federal Reserve. Three-quarters of respondents expect at least one rate cut by the end of 2020, and a third expects at least two further rate cuts by the end of next year.
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