Despite concerns over trade policy, National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Outlook panelists are slightly more optimistic about the U.S. economy in 2018 than they were three months ago, especially regarding prospects for the industrial sector of the economy, according to NABE Vice President Kevin Swift, CBE, chief economist, American Chemistry Council. The October 2018 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 51 professional forecasters
“Other indicators of real economic activity show light vehicle sales remaining elevated and housing continuing to improve,” says Scott.
“Half of survey respondents have moderately increased their inflation forecasts as a result of trade policy changes. Over half of the survey respondents indicate that they had reduced their GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and nearly 80% did so for 2019,” adds Survey Chair David Altig, executive vice president and director of research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. “Nonetheless, the percentage of panelists expecting a recession in 2019 fell relative to that in the June survey. One-third of respondents expects that we will not see a recession until 2021 or later.”
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