Podcast: Leading Safely in a VUCA World

When economic pressures mount, safety vigilance can quietly erode — and that's when incidents happen. In this episode, process safety expert Trish Kerin introduces APTBED, a practical decision-making framework for navigating volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous times. The acronym covers six critical areas: Authority (know who's in charge), Psychological Safety (create space for honest information), Tacit and Explicit Knowledge (bring all knowledge into the room), Biases (recognize and manage cognitive blind spots), Expectations (manage them or people will fill the void), and Document Decisions (if it's not written down, it never happened). Good decisions and strong safety culture aren't mutually exclusive — even in a crisis.

Transcript (edited for clarity)

Traci: Welcome to Processing Safety with Trish and Traci, the podcast that aims to share insights from past incidents to help avoid future events. Please subscribe to this free, award-winning podcast on your favorite platform so you can continue learning with Trish and me. I'm Traci Purdum, editor-in-chief of Chemical Processing, and as always, I'm joined by Trish Kerin, director of Lead Like Kerin. Hey, Trish, what have you been up to lately?

Trish: Well, Traci, I'm in Houston right now. It's getting very warm and humid down here in Texas — a bit more humid than I was expecting. I've been here for the Global Congress on Process Safety and the AIChE Spring Meeting, which wrapped up yesterday afternoon. As always, it was a fantastic event. Great to catch up with friends in the U.S. and see what's happening in process safety. This year there were some really great presentations, so I'm feeling quite invigorated about all things process safety at the moment.

Traci: Well, good — hopefully we can get some topics for future podcasts out of that.

Trish: Absolutely. And maybe even some guests, because some really great things came out of the last couple of days.

Traci: I'm always open to utilizing your network. In today's episode, we're going to be talking about leading in a volatile, uncertain, chaotic and ambiguous world — very timely. You forwarded me a PDF on decision-making during a crisis. I know you've worked your Trish magic on it and turned it into an easier-to-remember framework based on APTBED — A-P-T-B-E-D. But before we get into the letters, can you talk about why you consider this a germane topic for process safety?

Trish: Absolutely. We're going through some quite turbulent times, and that caused me to reflect on what we need to be focusing on in process safety. One of the challenges is that when things are very difficult economically, we start to focus on what we think really matters — typically the economics of running a plant, because we need to keep it profitable. But sometimes we can inadvertently let our safety vigilance slip. And when that happens, that's when things can go wrong.

The challenge is to keep a balanced view, even when times are tough. Yes, we need to focus on economic decisions, but we cannot forget the safety imperative at the same time. I thought it was useful right now to go through some tools and techniques to help us keep making good decisions — so we don't inadvertently create an incident today or set the conditions for one down the road because of decisions we're making now.

Traci: That's perfect. And I know you've graciously shared this topic with us. You're also doing a more in-depth webinar on this in May. Do you want to mention that before we dive in? [Editor's note: Receive $5 off with coupon code: CPREADER.]

Trish: Yes. The webinar is on May 5 at 1:30 p.m. ET, geared toward the North American time zone. It focuses on leadership in uncertain times — what we need to understand and what tools we can use — framed around what's called a VUCA environment: volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. When all of those things are happening at once, it can be very difficult to see clearly where we need to be and what decisions we need to be making.

I'll be going through tools and techniques to cope more effectively with that VUCA environment. What's the antidote? How can we structure our thinking differently? APTBED is one of those tools, focused specifically on decision-making in a crisis. There will also be various other tools and techniques, along with downloadable resources to take away. And as you said, I always try to make things as memorable and simple as possible. I love a good acronym — I'm an engineer at heart. APTBED came from that old saying, "You've made your bed, now you have to lie in it." Well, let's make that bed apt. Let's make sure it's the right bed to be in.

The framework was developed based on guidance the Australian government put out several years ago on practical decision-making, and I've given it the Lead Like Kerin tweak to pull out what I think are the key messages.

What is APTBED?

Traci: I'll link to the webinar in the show notes and transcript. But let's get into APTBED. I caught on to it right away — your brilliance comes through. So, the A: Authority. Who's in charge?

Trish: Yes, and this is critical. We often make assumptions about who's in charge, who's making key decisions, who's accountable. Those assumptions might be correct in everyday operations, but if the situation has changed, the person in charge may actually be different.

We need explicit clarity — not assumptions. In an emergency response situation, for example, the incident commander is in charge. That role may be filled by any number of trained people at your facility, depending on who's available. So it's not always the site manager, even though that would be the case under normal circumstances.

It sounds fundamentally simple, but it's critically important. People will look to their leader for guidance in a stressful situation — they need to know who to look to, or they'll be confused. And when they get confused, they can make mistakes or lose focus on the mission.

A clear statement of who is in charge — and who assumes that role today versus tomorrow — makes all the difference. It's also worth noting that the leadership style for that person may need to change in a crisis. A very consultative, collaborative leader works well when there's time. But in a crisis or emergency, you need to be able to shift to command and control: collect the data, collect the information, and make a decision. We simply don't have time for overly consultative processes in an emergency. The key is having a leadership toolkit that can adapt.

Psychological Safety

Traci: The next letter is P — Psychological Safety. Even with a clear authority figure, there has to be psychological safety. Talk us through that.

Trish: Absolutely. Even in a command-and-control situation, I need information coming to me so I can make good decisions. If I don't create an environment where people feel safe telling me the truth, I can't make good decisions.

If I'm yelling, showing extreme displeasure at information I don't like, I am not creating the right environment. People will only tell me what they think I want to hear — and that may not be correct. We don't need people just saying yes to everything. We need people to tell us the truth. If someone genuinely thinks I've made the wrong call, I need them to feel safe enough to say so.

That said, to those of you who are the ones delivering information: don't just tell a leader they're wrong and need to change. Say, "I think that decision may not be right — here's why." Give the rationale. Then we can have a discussion based on data and information. In my own experience as a leader, people have changed my mind many times by presenting information I wasn't aware of. A strong leader is willing to change their mind when the evidence calls for it.

You will be stressed in a crisis — that's a given. But that's not an excuse to berate people, because that will stop them from telling you things. And just because they're not telling you something doesn't mean it isn't true. It just means you don't have that information, and you won't make the right decision. Psychological safety isn't about consensus — it's about making sure you have the right information.

Tacit & Explicit Knowledge

Traci: Great advice. The T is Tacit and Explicit Knowledge.

Trish: Yes. There's a whole lot of knowledge in the room at any point in time. Tacit knowledge is our skills and experience coming together — our intuition. It's that moment when your gut says, "I don't think that's right," or "I need to do this now." We need to be open to that, because it's our brain sending important signals. It's not that we're being run by our gut — it's our subconscious recognizing patterns. Pay attention to it.

But we also need to take advantage of all the explicit knowledge available to us: our procedures, plans and documentation. We have emergency response plans for a reason. We need to follow them — while also understanding that situations can shift and we need to remain adaptable.

Bring all the knowledge into the room. Make sure you have the right people there, sharing their tacit knowledge freely — and back to psychological safety, make sure they're comfortable doing so.

Biases

Traci: B — Biases. Recognize and manage them.

Trish: Yes. We all have cognitive biases — and they exist for good reason. They allow our brains to make quick decisions by pre-filling information. That's valuable. But we need to be conscious of the biases that can lead us astray.

The first is anchoring bias. We hear a piece of information early on, anchor to it and assume it's correct, even when subsequent information suggests otherwise. Consciously ask yourself: Is this piece of information still valid in the current context? It may have been accurate a week ago, but is it still true now?

Then there's confirmation bias — looking only for information that confirms what we already believe and dismissing what doesn't. One technique I use: bring in someone not deeply involved in the situation and say, "Here's my data. What do you see?" If they draw a different conclusion, that's a signal I may be filtering the information in a biased way. The truth is usually somewhere in between.

Overconfidence bias is another one. When we're in positions of decision-making authority, we can assume we know what we're doing and that we're in control — even when we're not, or when we've gone beyond our scope. Good psychological safety helps here, too: someone needs to feel comfortable saying, "Are you sure about this? Is this really within your area of expertise?"

To be clear — biases aren't inherently bad. Most of the time they serve us well, and some are genuinely useful in safety contexts. It's about being aware they exist and working with them consciously.

Expectations

Traci: E — Expectations. Manage them.

Trish: Yes. During times of confusion, people will form expectations. If we don't define those expectations, they'll make up their own — and those stories are rarely positive.

If we commit to getting back to someone in three days, we need to do that. If we don't have the answer at three days, that's OK — but we need to go back and say, "I told you I'd have this by today. I don't, for these reasons. Here's when I'll follow up." Meeting the expectation doesn't always mean having the final answer. It means fulfilling the commitment in some way — either with the answer or with an honest update.

If we simply go silent, people fill that void. They tell themselves we don't care, we don't know what we're doing, or we've done something wrong. People create stories in the absence of information, and those stories are almost never charitable. So craft the narrative you want them to have. Go back to them. Give them something to hold on to.

Traci: That whole section brings me back to my time putting myself through college as a server. One of the best pieces of advice I ever received was from a manager who said, "Always manage expectations for your table — let them know you see them, that you're waiting on their food, that it's just a few more minutes." It makes the whole experience better. Honestly, I think everyone should spend some time in the service industry for that reason alone.

Trish: Absolutely.

Document Decisions

Traci: And the D — Document Decisions.

Trish: Yes. I started my career in aviation fuels, and one of the mantras drilled into me was: if it's not written down, it never happened.

When we make decisions, we need to document the decision and the assumptions behind it. Because in a week's time, that decision may need to change — and we need to know what assumptions drove it in order to change it correctly. Without documentation, history gets muddled. Our memories are not as accurate as we think, and when there's a lot of information flying around, things get confused.

But documentation alone isn't enough — it has to be visible. The people implementing decisions need to know what those decisions are. This is why, in any emergency management room, you'll see information visualized in multiple ways: plant status, a time log, an action log, all up on the wall. Anyone can walk into that room and immediately understand what's happening and where. That visualization is critical. Without it, we forget, we misremember and we end up making assumptions that don't reflect the original intent.

Write it down. Make it visible.

Traci: Trish, anything you want to add?

Trish: This is a tough area. We are in a very different climate right now, and my key message is this: if you can take something from APTBED and apply it to your business to get better outcomes, please do.

We need to keep focusing on both the economics of our businesses and on safety — because an incident will do far more damage to your business than any short-term economic pain. It's far easier to manage a safety situation proactively — even if that means shutting down part of a plant or changing how an operation runs — than it is to manage an emergency response with fire trucks, followed by scrutiny, investigation and the long, arduous path of rebuilding. If you even get to that point.

There's a harder way and an easier way. Keep safety at the front of mind. Do the risk assessment. Understand the implications of the decisions you're making. You'll find that making decisions with safety in mind is, in the long run, the easier path. The harder path is the one that follows an incident you could have prevented.

Traci: Trish, you always help us focus on safety, and I appreciate that. Unfortunate events happen all over the world, and we will be here to discuss and learn from them. Subscribe to this free podcast to stay on top of best practices. You can also visit ChemicalProcessing.com for more tools and resources aimed at helping you run efficient and safe facilities. On behalf of Trish, I'm Traci. This is Processing Safety with Trish and Traci. Thanks, Trish.

Trish: Stay safe.