NABE Anticipates Economic Growth

Sept. 12, 2016
NABE panel expects economy to grow for at least two more years, but sees negative impact from uncertainty about election outcome.

Four-fifths of panelists participating in National Association for Business Economics' (NABE) September Outlook Survey expect the next U.S. business cycle peak to occur in 2018 or later, according to NABE President-elect Stuart Mackintosh, CBE, executive director, Group of Thirty. Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, chief economist, National Retail Federation, notes that much like in June, there are no signs that current inflation will be picking up rapidly. “Still, panelists look for prices to inch higher toward the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0% in 2017,” says Kleinhenz.

“The September outlook survey represents the fourth consecutive quarterly survey in which participants have lowered their expectations for the rate of growth in 2016 for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, or real GDP,” adds Gregory Daco, head of U.S. Economics, Oxford Economics. “Panelists now foresee growth of only 1.5% this year, down from an expected 2.5% advance that was forecasted in the October 2015 survey. Lower expectations for business investment are the main contributor to the reduced GDP outlook.”

Daco continues, “Half of the panelists view uncertainty regarding the outcome of the election as modestly negative for the economy, with business investment seen as the most sensitive sector,. A majority—56%—of survey participants perceive a Clinton presidency as neutral for their economic growth forecast, but 60% view a Trump presidency as unfavorable for their growth forecast.”

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