Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.4% in 2019, and to 2.0% in 2020, according to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Outlook Survey. Since the last survey, a majority of panelists now see risks tilted to the downside, says NABE President Kevin Swift, CBE, chief economist, American Chemistry Council.
“A majority of panelists sees external headwinds from trade policy and slower global growth as the primary downside risks to growth,” says Survey Chair Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist, Oxford Economics. “Three-quarters of respondents have reduced their 2019 GDP growth outlook in response to trade policy developments. Nonetheless, recession risks are still perceived to be low in the near term.”
The panel’s expectations for monetary policy have also changed notably since the December survey, with the median response being the expectation of one more rate hike in the third quarter of 2019 and none thereafter.
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