Impact Of COVID-19 Drives Down Expected GDP Growth

June 10, 2020
NABE panel expects GDP growth to fall 5.6% in 2020.

The June 2020 National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Outlook survey panel expects GDP (gross domestic product) growth to fall 5.6% in 2020, with risks to the outlook still heavily skewed to the downside. According to NABE President Constance Hunter, CBE, chief economist, KPMG, panelists expect the largest decline – 33.5%, annualized, quarter-over-quarter – in the second quarter of the year. She notes that these decreases reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Outlook Survey Chair Eugenio Aleman, economist, Wells Fargo Bank, notes other highlights from the survey panel:

  • 80% of participants view risks to the outlook tilted to the downside in the second quarter of the year.
  • 87% of panelists view a second wave of COVID-19 as the greatest downside risk through 2020.
  • 51% of panelists believe that “a vaccine” is the greatest upside risk for 2020.
  • 29% of respondents believe that the greatest upside risk is a “test and trace policy” that would slow the COVID-19 outbreak and allow a broader reopening of the economy. 
  • 84% believe that companies will reduce their “dependence on global supply chains.”

For more from the June 2020 NABE Outlook, visit: www.nabe.com