During 2015, the worldwide manufacturing sector, which represents the primary customer base for the U.S. chemistry industry, continued to contend with market softness that started in 2014. However, U.S. chemical makers enjoyed competitive advantages due to shale gas. As a result, output of the U.S. chemical industry rose 3.6% last year — far better than the decline experienced in 2014 — and the prospects look bright for this year and beyond.
In the United States, the economy’s growth remains below its potential as high taxes, debt and regulatory burdens still take a toll on both business and consumer confidence. Companies have been cautious and capital spending was slow in 2015. Furthermore, overseas weakness and a higher dollar dampened U.S. exports. That said, further improvements in the employment situation, lower oil prices that are fostering more discretionary income, and asset prices moving higher are prompting consumers to start to spend again.
The U.S. economy should grow modestly this year. We can anticipate this by examining the trends in the Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) of the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The CAB is a composite index of economic indicators that tracks the activity of the chemical industry. (The CAB appears each month in CP’s Economic Snapshot) Due to its early position in the supply chain, chemical industry activity leads that of the economy as a whole and, thus, the CAB can point to potential turning points in the overall economy. The CAB currently is signaling slow economic growth into 2016. The consensus forecast this year is for the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 2.6%, which is slightly above trend (Figure 1). This should ease slightly in 2018 and beyond. As of December, the current recovery and expansion has lasted for 78 months; the average for post-World-War-II upturns is 60 months. So, the current upturn is getting a little old. Using a baseball metaphor, we are in the seventh inning. Long-term growth in the U.S. economy will moderate due to demographic, policy and other factors.
Manufacturing output had improved in 2014 but activity stalled last year — marking the first year of this recovery and expansion in which industrial growth lagged that of the overall economy. This reflected a higher U.S. dollar, weak growth in emerging markets, rising uncertainty and lower gains in business investment, and the downturn in oil production. U.S. light vehicle sales did rise and should increase further in 2016 as pent-up demand, improving employment (and income) prospects, and better availability of credit foster growth. When all is said and done, 2015 and 2016 will represent the best years since 2000 for vehicle makers; sales should increase further for the next couple of years. However, the outlook for housing, the other large consumer of chemicals (about $15,000 per start), is still cautious. Interest rates are low and better job growth eventually will lead to improved household formations, the prime long-term driver for housing. Housing starts should increase in 2016 and 2017. Activity will remain well below the previous peak of 2.07 million units in 2005 but, by the second half of the decade, activity will approach the long-term underlying demand of 1.5 million units per year as suggested by demographics and replacement needs. Table 1 summarizes the macroeconomic outlook.
As already noted, the volume of the U.S. chemical industry rose 3.6% in 2015. Even with the fall in oil prices, the U.S. chemical industry still has a favorable competitive position with regard to feedstock costs as natural gas prices have fallen as well. This will support U.S. chemical industry production going forward.
Softness in U.S. manufacturing has dampened domestic chemical demand and weakness elsewhere has hindered export sales although a favorable oil-to-gas price ratio normally would aid chemical exports. That said, U.S. exporters of plastic resins did very well in 2015. This is a preview of the long-term, as ACC expects trade in chemicals to continue to expand as global manufacturing activity improves and as additional U.S. capacity for organic chemicals, plastic resins and other downstream products comes onstream. However, imports of pharmaceuticals and agricultural chemicals still will spur trade deficits, which are partially offset by large (and growing) surpluses in basic and specialty chemicals.
The consensus is that U.S. chemical output will increase during 2016 and the second half of the decade (Table 2). Production should rise by 2.9% this year. Strong growth is expected in inorganic and organic chemicals, plastic resins and synthetic rubber as export markets revive and domestic end-use markets further improve.
Strong demand from end-use markets drove production of specialty chemicals into late-2014 but the collapse of drilling activity adversely affected the market for oilfield chemicals and the weakness in manufacturing hurt consumption in other segments. As a result, demand has been weak although exports took up some of the slack. In the long-term, production will improve as the manufacturing renaissance re-engages.