Respondents to the May 2022 National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Business Conditions Survey ratchet up their expectations for inflation rates in both 2022 and 2023. NABE President David Altig, executive vice president and director of research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, says in a report from the organization, “While the panel sees inflation peaking in 2022, projections for the core personal consumption price index have been revised upward by a full percentage point this year.”
Survey Chair Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist, Bloomberg, adds, “Seventy-seven percent of the panelists indicate the risks to U.S. economic growth are tilted to the downside this year, with monetary policy missteps representing the greatest downside risk. More than half of respondents estimate the odds of a recession within the next 12 months are greater than 25%.”
Other highlights from the survey:
- Panelists’ views regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy are varied, with wide spreads between the most optimistic and the most pessimistic estimates for GDP growth in 2022 and 2023.
- More than half (53%) of respondents assign a more than 25% probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months.
- Views on the key downside risks to the U.S. economic outlook through 2022 are similar to those in the previous survey and include monetary policy missteps (cited by 40% of the panel), the war in Ukraine prompting a global growth slowdown (34%) and ongoing supply-chain bottlenecks (13%).
For the entire report, visit: www.nabe.com
